Day 87

Day 87 of Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine. It’s been a busy week for Finland. On Monday the Finnish parliament debated NATO membership for 14 hours. How much debate there was, is itself debatable, since when the vote was held the next day there was overwhelming support for the move, with only 8 parliament members voting against it (out of 200), mostly from the Left Alliance party.

Following the vote, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, declared that Finland and Sweden joining NATO doesn’t really matter to the Kremlin after all. Which begs the question: if a neighboring country joining NATO is no big deal, then what was all that rigamarole about Russia having no choice but to invade Ukraine because a neighboring country even contemplating joining the western alliance could not be tolerated by Russia.

The following day Finland, along with Sweden, formally delivered its application to Jens Stoltenberg, general secretary of NATO and fellow Nordic. The day after that, Finnish president Sauli Niinistö traveled straight from Sweden, where he was making a state visit (prompted by the NATO application), to Washington to meet with Joe Biden. Sauli’s been busy. 

And he did manage to talk by phone to Putin last week, expressing his view of Finland’s situation in a clear and straightforward manner. Putin, in turn, told Niinistö that Finland would be making a mistake by joining NATO. Which seems to fly in the face of what Lavrov said.

The Russians are saying a lot of things. Someone on Russian state TV explained that the USSR never invaded Finland in 1939, but rather merely “moved our borders deeper into Finland”. Defense Minister Shoigu also said last week that Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO would force Russia to create 12 army “units and division” in the military district bordering Finland.

As of 7:00 this morning, Russia shut off the pipeline supplying natural gas to Finland. Luckily, Finland is not very dependent on gas in general, and the government has just signed a 10-year contract with an American company to lease the ship Exemplar, a “floating storage and regasification vessel” to help Finland import gas from other sources.

A small brewery in Savonlinna, not that far from the border that the USSR "moved" in 1939, is now marketing NATO-inspired beer, called "OTAN", which happens to be the French acronym for NATO and the Finnish word for "I take", commonly used when taking a good, hearty swig of beer. The Olof Brewing is planning to ship some samples to Joe Biden and Jens Stoltenberg. No word whether they will send some to Putin. 

Recently, I happened to notice that our cable TV package now includes, along with CNN, BBC, etc., the Nickelodeon cartoon channel – in Ukrainian. Unexpected. The only explanation I can come up with is that it’s for the benefit of Ukrainian children who are now in Finland as refugees. Though it’s true that, even before the war, Ukrainians has made up a large part of seasonal labor force in Finland. Whether there will be fewer Ukrainian strawberry pickers this summer due to men remaining in Ukraine to fight, I have no idea.  

Day 74

Day 74 of Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine. This past week the Finnish army was holding its annual mechanized war exercises (which I guess means using tanks, etc.), named Arrow 22. This year, units from the American, British, Latvian and Estonian armies were taking part. Such a joint exercise with four NATO militaries at this particular moment, of course, doesn't go unnoticed. It's even gotten the attention of the international media, with CNN at least doing a segment on it. The British defence minister was onhand to watch the exercises in person. He pledged that Britain would definitely come to Finland's aid in the case of a Russian attack.

Meanwhile, also this past week, a Russian helicopter encroached 4 kilometers into Finnish airspace, though nowhere near where Arrow 22 was taking place.

Neste, Finland's partly state-owned oil company, will take delivery of its last shipment of Russian crude oil in July, replacing it with North Sea oil. The Helsingin Sanomat has reported that before the war started an average of six tankers a week delivered oil from Russia, supplying two-thirds of Finland's crude oil imports. Now that's been reduced to just one tanker a week.

Finland is proceeding fast with its plans to join NATO. You might say Russia is not happy about this. One concrete threat already made by Russia is that the Saimaa Canal might be closed if Finland follows through joining the western alliance. The canal, half of which runs through Russian territory, gives Finland's massive Lake Saimaa freshwater system access to the Baltic Sea at the former Finnish city of Viipuri. Last summer, we watched a Russian freighter pass through the Mälkiä lock, the first lock on the voyage down the canal from Saimaa.

The canal was built over 165 years ago when Finland was a Grand Duchy of Russia, and has been operated by Finland since 1963. Finland holds a lease on the Russian part of the canal until 2063. A lot of industry in eastern Finland uses the canal for international trade. Towns deep inside Finland, like my wife's hometown of Varkaus, historically a big paper-making center, have benefited from the ship traffic the canal makes possible. It's clearly more important to Finland than to Russia. There was a danger that EU sanctions against Russia would put a stop to use of the canal when it reopened after the usual winter break. But then it was decided that ship traffic between Finland and Russia via the canal does not fall under the sanctions.

The war is having some effect anyway. While the canal officially opened for the 2022 traffic season on 28 March, actual ship traffic had to wait for the ice to melt enough by itself, without human help. Normally, sea-based ice breakers would have cleared the ice-bound sections of the canal with the opening of the season. But the operators of the ice breakers decided not to this year due to the risk of the canal being shut unepectedly, preventing their return back down the canal to the sea. Ironically, the ice breakers could have become stuck in Lake Saimaa in the summer. Now the Russia Duma is warning that Finland's 50-year lease on the canal could be "revised" if it joins NATO, a clear threat to close the canal.

Tomorrow is May 9th, Victory Day in Russia. There were reports that Putin wanted to have the whole military adventure in Ukraine wrapped up by then in order to put on a huge Victory Day celebration. Now, it seems he might use the occasion to officially declare war on Ukraine (not just a special military operation). As if things could get worse. Or maybe they can.