Day 74

Day 74 of Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine. This past week the Finnish army was holding its annual mechanized war exercises (which I guess means using tanks, etc.), named Arrow 22. This year, units from the American, British, Latvian and Estonian armies were taking part. Such a joint exercise with four NATO militaries at this particular moment, of course, doesn't go unnoticed. It's even gotten the attention of the international media, with CNN at least doing a segment on it. The British defence minister was onhand to watch the exercises in person. He pledged that Britain would definitely come to Finland's aid in the case of a Russian attack.

Meanwhile, also this past week, a Russian helicopter encroached 4 kilometers into Finnish airspace, though nowhere near where Arrow 22 was taking place.

Neste, Finland's partly state-owned oil company, will take delivery of its last shipment of Russian crude oil in July, replacing it with North Sea oil. The Helsingin Sanomat has reported that before the war started an average of six tankers a week delivered oil from Russia, supplying two-thirds of Finland's crude oil imports. Now that's been reduced to just one tanker a week.

Finland is proceeding fast with its plans to join NATO. You might say Russia is not happy about this. One concrete threat already made by Russia is that the Saimaa Canal might be closed if Finland follows through joining the western alliance. The canal, half of which runs through Russian territory, gives Finland's massive Lake Saimaa freshwater system access to the Baltic Sea at the former Finnish city of Viipuri. Last summer, we watched a Russian freighter pass through the Mälkiä lock, the first lock on the voyage down the canal from Saimaa.

The canal was built over 165 years ago when Finland was a Grand Duchy of Russia, and has been operated by Finland since 1963. Finland holds a lease on the Russian part of the canal until 2063. A lot of industry in eastern Finland uses the canal for international trade. Towns deep inside Finland, like my wife's hometown of Varkaus, historically a big paper-making center, have benefited from the ship traffic the canal makes possible. It's clearly more important to Finland than to Russia. There was a danger that EU sanctions against Russia would put a stop to use of the canal when it reopened after the usual winter break. But then it was decided that ship traffic between Finland and Russia via the canal does not fall under the sanctions.

The war is having some effect anyway. While the canal officially opened for the 2022 traffic season on 28 March, actual ship traffic had to wait for the ice to melt enough by itself, without human help. Normally, sea-based ice breakers would have cleared the ice-bound sections of the canal with the opening of the season. But the operators of the ice breakers decided not to this year due to the risk of the canal being shut unepectedly, preventing their return back down the canal to the sea. Ironically, the ice breakers could have become stuck in Lake Saimaa in the summer. Now the Russia Duma is warning that Finland's 50-year lease on the canal could be "revised" if it joins NATO, a clear threat to close the canal.

Tomorrow is May 9th, Victory Day in Russia. There were reports that Putin wanted to have the whole military adventure in Ukraine wrapped up by then in order to put on a huge Victory Day celebration. Now, it seems he might use the occasion to officially declare war on Ukraine (not just a special military operation). As if things could get worse. Or maybe they can.