It’s
been 19 days since the Finnish parliamentary election, and there is still no
government in place. At least, not quite. This isn’t unusual.
And, I should point out that by "government", I mean "cabinet". The actual functioning bureaucracy of government is still there, intact.
Compare this situation to the US, where you have a built-in two-month lag time between the election of a new US
Congress and its actual installment in the Capitol. For presidential
elections, the constitutionally decreed “lame-duck” period between election and
inauguration is even longer.
Though
we’ve still been waiting for the final makeup of the new Finnish government, the
results of the vote itself were clear within hours of the polls closing at
eight three Sundays ago.
As
was widely expected, the business-friendly Kokoomus party, the biggest in parliament
going into the election, lost its dominate position, apparently the victim of
general voter dissatisfaction over the anemic economic recovery (if it can be
called that). In its place rose the Keskusta (Center) Party, the party of the
legendary Urho Kekkonen who presided over Finnish politics for a quarter of a
century during the Cold War.
Keskusta,
led by self-made millionaire Juha Sipilä, won 21.1% of the vote nationwide,
giving it 49 seats in the new parliament, a huge increase of 14 from four years
ago. Keskusta took most of those seats from two parties: Kokoomus and the
Social Democrats, which got 18.2% and 16.5% of the vote, respectively. It was
an especially hard blow for the SDP, since its loss wasn’t so widely expected. They
were blindsided.
One
especially bright spot in the election was the five seats picked up by the Greens,
bringing its representation up to 15.
Still,
the headline news was the “rise”, relatively speaking, of the anti-immigration anti-EU
Perussuomalaiset party. I say “relatively” because the 17.6% of the vote
garnered by PS meant they actually lost one seat, ending up with 38. The level
of support for PS didn’t change significantly. PS was propelled into the Number
Two position simply by the collapse of Kokoomus and SDP.
(The
fact that PS came out one seat ahead of Kokoomus despite getting a half-percentage-point
fewer votes is down to the D’Hondt method used to allocate seats.)
Voter
turnout, despite the apparent huge interest in the election, was a somewhat
disappointing 70.1%.
And
now another inevitable comparison to America: turnout in the US mid-term election of
2014 hit a scandalous post-war record low of 36.4%. Okay, mid-term elections
always attract fewer voters than do presidential races, but even in the 2012
vote – in which many conservative zealots I know lusted for the chance to turn
Obama out of office — only 58% of Americans bothered to vote. Some
democracy.
Meanwhile,
back in Finland, turnout was higher in Helsinki than for the nation overall
(almost 75%), and I was pleased to see that my neighborhood did even better,
with a turnout of 82.4%.
The
earnest voters of this part of suburban Helsinki, where I live and voted
myself, went overwhelmingly (almost 40%) for Kokoomus, followed by SDP (16%),
the Greens (15%), PS (12%), and in fifth place, Keskusta (only 9%). In fact, Keskusta
won only 7% of the vote in Helsinki overall, showing that there is something to
the idea that Keskusta is still mainly a party of the countryside.
Since Keskusta's big election night victory 19 days ago, Juha Sipilä has been trying to put
together a coalition from among the biggest winning parties, apparently a meticulous
process of negotiation. There’s been lots of speculation about who will be included in the new government. The biggest worry among more mainstream establishment types
is that, with its second-place finish, Perussuomalaiset will now demand a
prominent role in the cabinet, something they didn’t seemed inclined to do four
years ago.
With
the announcement yesterday of an agreement finally being reached, those fears were
proven to be well founded. The next government will indeed be a mashup of the
rural Keskusta party and the more nativist Perussuomalaiset party, joined
by Kokoomus, though this all remains to be formally finalized next week.
The SDP was left out completely, as was the smaller, moderate Swedish People’s
Party, which has had a role in every government for almost forty years.
The
question now is how well will the Perussuomalaiset handle being in government,
as opposed to just sniping at it.
