Day 61

Day 61 of Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine. The Finnish parliament began debating NATO membership last week. Russia already warned over a month ago that Finland joining the Western alliance would “require retaliatory measures” on its part, with Sergei Belyayev, head of the Russian foreign ministry’s European department, promising “serious military and political consequences”.

More recently, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, said Russia would be forced to increase its military presence in the Baltic. He went so far as to threaten ending the “nuclear-free” status of the region, which surely means at least deploying nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad. (Whether they have been there all along is another question.)

A week or so ago a video was shared on social media supposedly showing Russia military equipment moving along a highway toward the Finnish border. That turned out to be from some years ago, so in no way evidence of a recent threat.

In fact, a Finnish expert estimates that Russian forces normally based near Finland have been “severely degraded” since the war in Ukraine started. So, maybe Russia is less of a threat now than before.

Military equipment is going the other way, however. Finland has now shipped a third wave of arms and military supplies to Ukraine. Unlike in the first wave, the government has not revealed specially what was included in the more recent shipments.

Meanwhile, Finland is reducing its dependence on Russian energy. Starting yesterday, Finland has started cutting back on the electricity it imports from Russia, which is reportedly about a third of its electricity imports and 10% of its total consumption. Luckily, much of the shortfall from the loss of Russian power can be compensated by Finland’s fifth nuclear reactor when it finally comes fully online soon.

Until a mere two years ago Russia was Finland’s only source of natural gas, via a cross-border pipeline. That one has now been supplemented by an undersea pipeline from Estonia that can supply up to a third of Finland's LNG needs. We are otherwise not as dependant on Russia as are Germany or other countries anyway, since natural gas accounts for only 6% of energy consumptions here. 

In any case, Finland will stop all gas imports from Russia and turn to other sources to replace it, which means importing via tanker ships -- despite currently having no LNG terminals where to offload the ships. As a temporary solution, it has agreed with Estonia to share a floating LNG terminal to be used to supply both countries with non-Russian gas.

Reducing dependence on Russian crude oil (70% of Finnish oil imports) and coal (about half of imports) is also underway. While existing contracts are still being honored, no new ones being signed. The Finnish state railway company is also being pressured to stop transporting Russian coal through Finland for export to other countries well before the EU sanctions deadline of August. 

It seems clear that Finland will likely never return as the good customer it was for Russia's energy business, even after the bloody war in Ukraine finally concludes.